MEBRO
FACT CHECK #Z7IQXQCB
06/09/26 · 12:12 PM UTC · 17 SOURCES
EXHIBIT A
What you submitted
“An odds of 1 in 10^1,822 for an election result is equivalent to correctly calling about 6,053 fair coin flips in a row.”
TL;DR ·Statistical conversion confirms the probability of 6,053 consecutive fair coin flips equals approximately 1 in 10^1,822.
WHAT WE FOUND
The mathematical probability of a fair coin landing on a specific side is exactly 0.5 or 1/2 . When calculating the likelihood of multiple independent events occurring in a sequence, such as consecutive coin flips, the probabilities are multiplied . To find the number of flips equivalent to a 1 in 10^1,822 chance, the equation is (1/2)^n = 1/10^1,822. Using logarithmic conversion, n = 1,822 / log10(2), which results in approximately 6,052.55 . Therefore, calling 6,053 fair coin flips in a row is the correct mathematical equivalent for the stated odds . While some research indicates that physical coin tosses may have a slight same side bias of approximately 1%, the standard statistical model for a fair coin remains a 50/50 probability . The mention of election results in this context often refers to statistical models used in econometrics and presidential voting analysis .
SOURCES
- 1 · omnicalculator.comWEBCoin Flip Probability Calculator
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- 2 · en.wikipedia.orgWEBChecking whether a coin is fair - Wikipedia
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- 3 · arxiv.orgWEB[2310.04153] Fair coins tend to land on the same side they started
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- 4 · quora.comWEBWhat is the probability of getting exactly one heads when flipping a ...
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- 5 · quizlet.comWEBstats midterm Flashcards | Quizlet
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- 6 · stats.stackexchange.comWEBCan a fair coin test be applied to a coin that often lands on its edge?
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- 7 · scientificamerican.comWEBScientists Destroy Illusion That Coin Toss Flips Are 50–50
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- 8 · sites.duke.eduACADEMICProbability | Rick's Ramblings - Sites@Duke Express
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- 9 · thomasjpfan.comWEBStatistical Power of Coin Flips - thomasjpfan.com
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- 10 · reuters.comFACT-CHECKERReuters Fact Check
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- 11 · osf.ioWEBHow fair is a fair coin flip?
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- 12 · researchgate.netACADEMIC(PDF) Fair coins tend to land on the same side they started
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- 13 · factcheck.orgFACT-CHECKERFactCheck.org - A Project of The Annenberg Public Policy ...
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- 14 · aeaweb.orgWEBEconometrics and Presidential Elections
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- 15 · pearson.comWEBFlipping a Coin What is the probability of obtaining five heads i...
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- 16 · math.stackexchange.comWEBExpected value of the number of flips until the first head
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- 17 · pas.rochester.eduACADEMICTheory of Probability
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