MEBRO

FACT CHECK #UKZH7LRN

06/09/26 · 12:12 PM UTC · 16 SOURCES

EXHIBIT A

What you submitted

“An odds of 1 in 10^877 for an election result is equivalent to correctly calling roughly 2,914 fair coin flips in a row.”
UNVERIFIED ?

TL;DR ·Mathematical principles support the equivalence, but provided sources do not mention these election odds.

WHAT WE FOUND

The claim asserts that a 1 in 10^877 probability is roughly equivalent to calling 2,914 consecutive fair coin flips. Statistical principles in the sources state that $n$ independent coin flips result in 2^n possible outcomes . Using this formula, 2^2,914 equals approximately 10^877.2, which confirms the comparison is mathematically sound and roughly equivalent . However, the provided sources regarding election modeling and accuracy do not mention any result or forecast featuring odds of 1 in 10^877 . While sources acknowledge that polling can be inaccurate due to sampling errors, they do not contain the specific figures cited in the claim . Consequently, the existence of an election result with these specific odds is UNVERIFIED .

SOURCES

  1. 1 · omnicalculator.comWEB
    Coin Flip Probability Calculator

    TIER B

  2. 2 · quora.comWEB
    My friend told me he could predict the outcome of a coin toss ... - Quora

    TIER B

  3. 3 · quizlet.comWEB
    Probability & Statistics #2 Flashcards - Quizlet

    TIER B

  4. 4 · aleph0.clarku.eduACADEMIC
    [PDF] Answers - Math 114 Discrete Mathematics

    TIER A

  5. 5 · math.stackexchange.comWEB
    Expected value of the number of flips until the first head

    TIER B

  6. 6 · newscientist.comWEB
    Coin flips don't truly have a 50/50 chance of being heads or tails

    TIER B

  7. 7 · vaia.comWEB
    Flipping a coin Flipping a fair coin is said to randomly ... - Vaia

    TIER B

  8. 8 · reuters.comFACT-CHECKER
    Reuters Fact Check

    TIER A

  9. 9 · pas.rochester.eduACADEMIC
    Theory of Probability

    TIER A

  10. 10 · calculatorsoup.comWEB
    Coin Flipper - Calculator Soup

    TIER B

  11. 11 · gking.harvard.eduACADEMIC
    [PDF] Estimating the Probability of Events That Have Never Occurred

    TIER A

  12. 12 · pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.govACADEMIC
    The Effects of Forecasts on the Accuracy and Precision of Expectations

    TIER A

  13. 13 · siam.orgWEB
    [PDF] A Bayesian Model for the Prediction of United States Presidential ...

    TIER B

  14. 14 · aapor.orgWEB
    Polling Accuracy - AAPOR

    TIER B

  15. 15 · newsroom.haas.berkeley.eduACADEMIC
    Polling 101: How accurate are election polls? - Haas News

    TIER A

  16. 16 · researchdmr.comACADEMIC
    [PDF] Fundamental Models for Forecasting Elections*

    TIER A

VERDICT TOTALUNVERIFIED ?
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