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MEBRO
07/01/26 · 3:44 AM UTC · 11 SOURCES
“Medicaid membership is projected to decrease in 2027”
HIGH CONFIDENCE
TL;DR ·Multiple official projections confirm significant Medicaid enrollment declines starting in 2027 due to new federal requirements.
Projections from government and research organizations indicate that Medicaid membership will decrease in 2027 due to the implementation of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) . The law introduces mandatory work and reporting requirements for expansion enrollees beginning in January 2027 . High credibility sources estimate that these changes will lead to substantial enrollment drops: the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation projects between 3 and 7 million people will lose coverage due to work requirements alone , while the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that 11.8 million individuals will directly lose Medicaid coverage . Additionally, the CBO projects the number of people covered through Medicaid expansion will fall from 17 million in 2025 to 10 million by 2032, a 41 percent decrease . Other factors contributing to the 2027 decline include increased eligibility verification, limits on immigrant coverage, and changes to redetermination policies . Individual state data also supports this trend, with projections showing a stabilization or decrease in enrollment for the 2026 to 2027 period .
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