FACT CHECK #7DMJGROG

WHAT WE FOUND

National average gas prices reached and exceeded $4.50 per gallon in mid-2026, a direct consequence of the conflict initiated by President Trump against Iran 2 5 10. Before the war began on February 28, 2026, the average price was $2.98, representing a spike of roughly 50% or $1.50 per gallon within ten weeks 3 10. The price surge was driven by the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the cancellation of maritime insurance for oil tankers 4. Trump and his administration explicitly framed these costs as a temporary price worth paying to ensure that Iran would not have a nuclear weapon 1 9. Following the signing of an Iran peace deal in June 2026, prices began to decline, dropping below $4.00 for the first time in months 8. High-credibility sources confirm the $4.50 figure and the causal link between the military campaign and the economic impact 2 3 11.

SOURCES

1. 1 · nytimes.comFACT-CHECKER
   A Fact Check of Trump’s Claims on Inflation and Gas Prices in Iran War - The New York Times

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2. 2 · gov.ca.govACADEMIC
   61 days later, no plan: Trump’s Iran war drives national gas prices to a four-year high, sending prices soaring across the economy | Governor of California

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3. 3 · ms.nowACADEMIC
   Republicans who slammed Biden’s gas prices are preaching patience for Trump

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4. 4 · theguardian.comNEWS
   Trump claims US fuel prices ‘not very high’ as costs surge amid Iran war | US economy | The Guardian

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5. 5 · reuters.comNEWS
   White House scrambles for gas-price relief as Iran war drags on | Reuters

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6. 6 · newsweek.comWEB
   Why Donald Trump’s Rockets Fall Like Feathers - Newsweek

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7. 7 · nbcnews.comWEB
   Map: How much you pay in federal and state gas taxes as Trump weighs price cut

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8. 8 · independent.co.ukWEB
   Gas drops below $4 a gallon after Trump signs Iran peace deal | The Independent

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9. 9 · aljazeera.comWEB
   US gas reaches $4.30 per gallon; Trump says prices will drop after Iran war | US-Israel war on Iran News | Al Jazeera

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10. 10 · people.comWEB
    Cabinet Secretary Touts Trump's Efforts to 'Keep the Price of Gas Down at Home,' Though Gas Is Actually Up 50% amid Iran War

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11. 11 · politico.comWEB
    Oil industry warns Trump administration of price spikes within weeks - POLITICO

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