SA 15 Million Illegal Migrants Claim: The Evidence-Free Figure Fueling Xenophobia

Stats SA put the number of foreign-born people living in South Africa — documented and undocumented combined — at about 3.9 million in 2020 ^[1].

The UN Population Division separately estimated 4.2 million international migrants in South Africa in 2019, about 7.2% of the population ^[1][2].

By 2022, Stats SA's chief director for demography put the foreign-born population at roughly 3.96 million, or 6.5% of the population — still less than a third of the claimed 15 million ^[3].

After the figure was challenged, Mashaba said 'the exact number matters less than what [the Department of Home Affairs] is doing' about migration; the report recording his response found no indication he retracted the 15 million figure itself ^[2].

ActionSA members repeated the same 15 million claim again in 2023; the Department of Home Affairs told Daily Maverick that 'neither the minister nor the department had ever made the claim' ^[3]. A figure challenged in 2020 was still circulating, unretracted, three years later.

Human Rights Watch has documented Operation Dudula, a vigilante group founded in 2021, blocking immigrants from health care, raiding foreign-owned businesses, and forcing them to close ^[4].

Operation Dudula says its campaign targets an 'influx of illegal immigrants,' but neither the group nor available research backs that framing with reliable figures ^[4][5].

The claim that South Africa hosts 15 million undocumented migrants is unsupported. It stems from a misreading of World Bank identity-document data, and Stats SA and UN estimates put the actual foreign-born population — documented and undocumented combined — at under 4.2 million, roughly a quarter of the claimed figure ^[1][2][3]. The unsupported number has persisted for years past its own source's disavowal, while unsubstantiated migration claims continue to be invoked to justify vigilante action against foreign nationals ^[4][5].