A 21-Year-Old Faked a Poll. It Fooled a Mayor, the Press, and Almost the Midterms.

Major polling aggregators never touched it. The New York Times and polling tracker FiftyPlusOne both flagged that the release "lacked basic information about how it was conducted and who was behind it," and Median Strategies didn't respond when pressed for methodology ^[1]. The Los Angeles Times kept asking anyway — and on August 18, 2026, Median Strategies admitted defeat by email, calling the release "a short-term social experiment examining how purported polling information could enter and spread through the political information ecosystem without independent verification" and withdrawing every poll it had ever published, including releases on Wisconsin's Democratic gubernatorial primary and Nevada's governor's race ^[1][2].

The firm had no offices, no staff roster, and no verifiable survey data — it was, by its own admission, a single person testing whether a fabricated number with a fake margin of error could pass as real polling.

On August 28, 2026, The Guardian identified the man behind Median Strategies as Rahil Prakash, a 21-year-old recent college graduate, using domain registration records tied to the site ^[4]. Prakash confirmed the Guardian's reporting was "fully accurate" but declined further interviews ^[4]. He told the paper his inspiration came from watching polls and prediction markets badly misjudge Abdul El-Sayed's 2026 Michigan Senate primary, which markets showed him winning by a wide margin before the actual result came in far closer ^[4].

Bass's campaign spokesman, Alex Stack, said: "Any bad faith attempts to influence elections should be investigated and prosecuted to the fullest extent of the law," while noting the poll "was reported on by multiple news outlets" before it was deleted ^[2]. Raman's campaign was less forgiving — spokesperson Liz Garcia said "Angelenos deserve a mayor who gets the facts right, communicates clearly, and does the work before announcing the result" ^[2].

The episode also renewed scrutiny of prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket, where billions in bets flow weekly on political outcomes. Both platforms checked their records after the reveal: Kalshi confirmed Prakash holds an account but found no trades tied to any race in his fake polls, and Polymarket found no account for him at all ^[3]. Betting-market watchdog Amanda Fischer of Better Markets told NPR the episode still exposes a real vulnerability heading into the midterms: "These markets are very easily manipulated," and bad actors — partisan or foreign — could exploit the same trick with actual money behind it ^[3].

FALSE. Median Strategies' Los Angeles poll, and every other poll it released, was fabricated — a fact the outfit itself confirmed before shutting down ^[1][2]. No credible survey data supports the 12-point Bass lead that circulated for six days before retraction. This particular stunt was not, per Prakash and both prediction-market platforms, tied to any betting activity ^[3] — but it demonstrates, cheaply and effectively, how a fake number with a fabricated methodology can move through campaigns, newsrooms, and social media before anyone checks who published it.